Marketers import N2.4Tn petrol competition with Dangote.

A new round of conflicts may have started between big oil marketers and the Dangote petroleum refinery as both compete for supremacy in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This follows recent comments by the President of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, who said that his $20 billion refinery is still “fighting for survival” despite what he termed as sabotage by entrenched interests and oil sector cabals opposing the local plant.

He indicated at a recent event that the battle with entrenched oil cabals—which began before the refinery began full operations—was still ongoing, but he was certain that he would eventually succeed in safeguarding the plant’s future.

The findings revealed that the business mogul’s remarks were prompted by the refinery’s ongoing importation of petrol and the reluctance of large marketers to buy in bulk from it, despite its increased production capacity and enhanced output of petroleum products.

This comes against the backdrop of marketers of petroleum goods using scarce foreign exchange to bring in a total of 2.57 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit, generally known as petrol, in 70 days between March 1 and May 9, 2025.

The April 2025 midstream and downstream document, as well as the most recent tanker vessel movement received from Blue Sea Maritime, revealed that the marketers who chose not to patronise Dangote imported 755.7 million litres of petrol in March, an average of 25.19 million per day.

Petrol imports increased by over 1.47 billion litres in April alone, reflecting a continued reliance on foreign supply.

Within the first ten days of May, an extra 331.33 million litres were imported, highlighting the country’s sustained high need for imports despite increased local supply.

Importers may have paid ₦2.42 trillion on PMS imports at an average price of ₦948 per litre. This is in addition to the N4.51 trillion invested for the same purpose between October 2024 and February 2025.

Dangote had warned last year that some mafias were sabotaging his refinery.

He explicitly stated that some multinational oil companies were undermining his investment by denying the facility adequate crude supply, notwithstanding the domestic crude supply commitment.

Dangote claimed that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority was providing permits to marketers to import inferior petroleum products into the country.

To oppose this, the facility petitioned a federal high court to prevent the regulatory authorities from giving import licences to marketers.

The court has yet to rule on the request.

Last year, Dangote expressed regret for establishing the refinery, claiming that the oil and gas mafias were stronger than those in the narcotics industry.

“In a system where people have been counting good money for 35 years and suddenly realise that the days of counting that money are over, you don’t expect them to pray for you. Naturally, you expect them to fight back.

“I believe that is the process that we are currently going through. However, the truth is that the country, sub-region, and continent of Sub-Saharan Africa all require this refinery. So you expect them to fight through the non-supply of crude and the non-purchase of the product, but I believe this is just temporary. “We’ll get there,” Dangote said.

However, in an update at an investor meeting in Lagos last week, Dangote stated that the fight for the survival of his $20 billion refinery was ongoing.

He claimed that some people who “for a very, very long time” have “made a lot of money from” government-subsidised oil imports into Nigeria were attempting to sabotage the 650,000 barrels per day oil refinery in Lekki, Lagos.

“We are battling, and the struggle is not yet over. But I’ve been battling my entire life, and I’m prepared and confident that I’ll win at the end of the day,” he said.

He then stated that those remaining opposed to his refinery’s survival were significant marketers and dealers, not the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited leadership.

Despite the business mogul’s claims, figures show that petrol imports have dropped dramatically in recent months.

According to the most recent NMDPRA data, daily imports of Premium Motor Spirit decreased from 44.6 million litres in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres as of April 13, 2025—a drop of almost 30 million litres, or 67%.

This decrease is due to improved supplies from the Dangote refinery, the Port Harcourt refinery, and modular refineries.

In a significant shift, the NNPCL, previously a dominant importer, has reduced its overseas acquisitions, preferring to get products directly from the refinery.

However, in an earlier interview, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, stated that there should be no disagreement in the downstream sector on the source of petroleum product purchases.

He argued that Dangote should be able to refine its products under the naira-for-crude deal, and that importers and other traders should be given equal opportunities to operate.

Gillis-Harry stated that all statements should be supported by facts, and that competition is inevitable in any firm, but it should be healthy.

“I just want all players to do their business without a fight,” the PETROAN manager stated.

Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, stated that the fight is typical of any business, particularly when one product outperforms another in the market.

He replied, “Well, this is business. Competition abounds. There is no businessman against whom people will not fight if he is doing well, especially if you are the only one producing items and the others are not being patronised due to the price. So it’s clear that every businessman wants to survive. It is not an issue. All we can do is encourage him.

“We independent marketers are pleased with his price reductions, even if they sometimes contradict our business plan and expectations. But that’s part of the business; there’s profit and loss.

“You are aware that the market is determined by the forces of supply and demand. So, if he is talking about how individuals want to sabotage him, he has stated that he is willing to fight the oil cartels and is in this business to ensure that Nigerians do not suffer. So, we encourage him not to give up hope, and we as independent marketers stand behind him in every way.”

However, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria expressed concern about what it saw as a developing monopoly in the downstream petroleum industry, saying that the Dangote refinery’s dominance might disrupt the market if not carefully handled.

In an interview with TVC on Friday, DAPPMAN’s Executive Secretary, Mr Olufemi Adewole, denied charges of a “cabal” in the sector while admitting the existence of vested interests among private depot owners who had invested billions of naira over the years to keep petroleum flowing to Nigerians.

He stated, “There is no cabal in the midstream and downstream operations as far as I am concerned, because the English definition of a cabal is a negative, subversive thing.” There is no cabal. But I can tell you that we have a vested interest.

“My principals have vested interests in the area. So, if they invested billions of naira over time and closed the gap, they were there before Dangote to ensure Nigerians had fuel. Certainly, they should receive comparable returns on their investment. So, in that regard, I would argue there is no cabal, just vested interests.”

Adewole went on to say that, despite its vast 650,000-barrel capacity, the Dangote Refinery has been unable to meet even the current decreased domestic consumption needs.

He claimed that private depot owners remained to carry the majority of the fuel distribution burden across the country.

He stated that banning petroleum imports at this point would be “chaotic” and “dangerous”, and that a phased strategy would be more viable until many domestic refineries were operational.

Adewole also expressed significant concern about what he called a “clear and present danger” of monopoly, pointing out that Dangote’s size gave it undue control over pricing and supply networks.

“As you may recall, Dangote recently sued the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and several other marketers. This reveals their attitude, and what they were disputing was the regulator’s jurisdiction, as embodied in the PIA, to issue import licenses for marketers to import fuel. This instance exemplifies their thinking perfectly.

“So, the fear of monopoly is real, and we are working with other stakeholders to make sure this is not realised, and we are working with the regulators, encouraging them to do their work so that this is curtailed.”

In direct contacts with the refinery, Adewole claimed that DAPPMAN members were not given a fair opportunity to purchase items, saying that the refinery chose to sell primarily to selected marketers via gantry supply rather by bulk depot loading.

“The Dangote Refinery prefers a selected approach. We have stockpiles in Calabar, Port Harcourt, and other coastal locations ready to collect in bulk—10,000, 15,000, or even 20,000 metric tonnes—but access to loading vessels is limited.”

He further revealed that price cuts after containers had left the gantry had forced numerous marketers to secretly swallow losses to stay afloat. “We didn’t come out to make a noise. However, we have had to shoulder the brunt of the burden in order to remain viable and profitable.”

Adewole addressed the problem of pump pricing, stating that the cost of petroleum products was constructed on numerous layers, from crude price to refinery margins, logistics, and retail charges, emphasising the impact of operational inefficiencies and high finance costs on final prices.

“Depot operations are demanding. Equipment is getting older, and capital costs are significant. To import 20,000 metric tonnes, a marketer’s exposure must exceed N20 billion. “Most of this is bank-financed at high interest rates,” he concluded.