ANALYSIS: How Gender factor ‘propelled’ Ishaku Abbo to victory against Binta, APC in 2019.

The senator representing Adamawa north in the Nigerian senate, Ishaku Abbo sailed through  less opposition to secure his first mandate into the Nigerian senate in 2019.

Mr Abbo, candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), polled  79, 337 to defeat his main rival, Senator Binta Marsi Garba of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who had 63, 219 .

He won his first election of 2019 as a candidate of the PDP, principally supported by some aggrieved members of the then ruling APC in Adamawa that fell apart with the party due to what they felt as imposition of Binta on them by a former national chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole in 2019.

Mr Abbo’s victory could be attributed, in part, to the role played by the aggrieved members of the APC in 2019 for a second term ticket given to Binta Masi Garba to the detriment of other capable candidates especially the male folks in Adamawa north senatorial district, many people believe.

Since the return to democracy in 1999 no senator in Adamawa north has ever won re-election into the senate for two consecutive times as the northern and southern senatorial district of Adamawa state is notorious for rejecting any candidate that seek re-election.

In 1999 after the return to democracy, Iya Abubakar was the first candidate of the People’s Democratic Party produced from Adamawa north into the Nigerian senate, he vied for second term ticket and lost, in 2007, Senator Mohammed Umana won on the platform of the PDP and lost re-election, in  2011 Senator Jibrilla Umaru Bindow won on the platform of the People’s democratic party spend four years in the senate, contest and won governorship election of 2015, it was only Bindow that did not seek re-election into the senate in Adamawa north.

It is on record that no senator has ever won re-election in Adamawa north; no senator has ever broken the second term streak of winning re-election into the senate for two consecutive terms.

The Finder investigation revealed that APC automatic ticket for Binta Masi in 2019 in Adamawa north and gender played out very well in favour of the incumbent Senator, Ishaku Abbo as fielding fresh candidate by the then ruling APC in Adamawa north not female candidate would hamper Ishaku Abbo’s dream of representing Adamawa north in the Nigerian senate in 2019 as Abbo who is seen as a political neophyte was extremely lucky as even a pauper without huge financial war chest would have still defeat any candidate seeking re-election in Adamawa north in 2019 .

An anti-Binta movement led by aggrieved APC members of Adamawa north became energised during the 2019 election, gender factor play a major role in Abbo defeating Binta in 2019, it is also on record that no female candidate has ever won any re-election in Adamawa politics since the return to democracy, Senator Grace Bent lost re-election in Adamawa south despite excellent representation in the Nigerian senate, the current senator representing Adamawa central, Aishatu Dahiru Binani lost re-election into the Nigerian House of Reps. In 2015 due to gender factor as same faith awaits her in 2023.

Real reason Abbo wants to contest for Governor in 2023

Base of the under lying factors, the fear of losing re-election into the senate in 2023 is responsible for Abbo’s plan decision to seek higher office, as rumour is rife that Abbo will contest for the office of the governor in 2023 due to fear of losing re-election into the senate.

It is better for Abbo to contest for the office of the governor in 2023 and lost than to seek re-election into the senate in 2023 as the ominous signs of losing re-lection into the senate stares Abbo on the face, hence the decision to contest for a governorship in 2023 as loosing governorship election will save him in 2023 than losing senate re-election.

Abbo knows fully well that he can’t win any election of Adamawa again, even a position of the councillor will elude him after 2023, and pundits have it that Abbo will be retired politically as the current alliance with some politicians from Adamawa state will amount to nothing.

For instance, if Abbo decides to contest for re-lection into the senate in 2023, none of the major political parties will offer him their platform, in APC most of Adamawa north political giants are in queue to seek Abbo’s sit in the senate, prominent among candidates jostling for Abbo’s sit is the immediate past commissioner for Finance, Sali Mahmmod, Dr. Abdullahi Belel, Prof. Tahir Mamman and many others, I doubt Abbo can defeat any of these political giants in any contest of APC primary in 2023.

As far as Adamawa APC is concern in regard to governorship contests in 2023, Abbo will be seen as a lynch pin compare to likes of a former governor of the state, Senator Jibrilla Bindow, Nuhu Ribadu and others as he is not a match to any of the candidates warming up for 2023 governorship contest in Adamawa.

Ishaku Abbo is politically finished, Adamawa PDP has taken into account his sins against the party, the outburst and his behaviour towards the governor who is automatically the leader of the party of the state has brought his political career in PDP to a halt.

Even on social media where Abbo is seen as lords of the manor, Abbo is an Absolutist; he combines brute with arrogance. He does not fancy otherness or contraries, it is his way always.

Those who are his friends of social media will always tell that you either support his post of Facebook or you get a block if you say the contrary,  Abbo cannot take dissenting voices in his friends of social media how much he expects a governor to take his excesses and immature outbursts from him.

Abbo wants to govern Adamawa state, but how well can electorates or his political allies navigate through the relationship maze with Abbo who is erratic, impulsive, and short tempered and domineering?

Well there will be spheres of conflict between Abbo and his new found friends visiting him and turning his house into Mecca of sort not necessary as regards area of political association, but on differences in political interest and pursuits.

Despite commanding a handful of followership on social media, it will not translate into votes in 2023; many see Abbo as a Facebook enthusiast that is not on ground in Adamawa as the pastry sum of 79, 000 votes cannot take him nowhere to win a governorship seat in Adamawa state.